Saturday, October 27, 2012
October 27, 2012
Big "Frankenstorm" coming. Will watch tonight's forecasts, as they are good within two days and not so good beyond that range. Already have the batteries from last storm.
Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise has a nice chapter on Weather forecasting. Claims local broadcasts have a "Wet Bias." From his book:
"In what may be the worst-kept secret in the business, numerous commercial weather forecasts are also biased toward forecasting more precipitation than will actually occur. (In the business, this is known as the wet bias.) For years, when the Weather Channel said there was a 20 percent chance of rain, it actually rained only about 5 percent of the time.
People don’t mind when a forecaster predicts rain and it turns out to be a nice day. But if it rains when it isn’t supposed to, they curse the weatherman for ruining their picnic. “If the forecast was objective, if it has zero bias in precipitation,” Bruce Rose, a former vice president for the Weather Channel, said, “we’d probably be in trouble.” "
Tundra Brewery has a table at the Greenmarket. 2 for $5, will try Brown and Red before going for the Six-Pack.
Finally, someone gets it right.
Some good Pepper purveyors at the Greenmarket.
Scooby at Union Square.
From the archives, The Misery machine.